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跨越发展的陷阱:推进经济中高速增长的突破性改革方案 本书特色
目前，中国经济增速明显放缓，下行危机不断增大。如何跨越这发展的陷阱？ “新常态”下，如何通过深化改革，推进经济实现中高速增长？本书剖析了中国经济增长速度下行的三方面内在原因，解读了经济下行的各种风险，分析了扭转风险所面对的优势，并结合对中国经济增长的历史回顾，对中国经济发展大势做出预判，提出中国实体经济降成本政策及其配套改革方案，阐述了实现经济增长的突破性和基础动能性体制改革、改革体制与盘活存量、开放和拓展增长领域的体制改革、对外经济开放改革等方案性措施，是各级经济政策的设计者、改革方案的制定者以及所有关注中国经济发展读者的必读力作。
跨越发展的陷阱:推进经济中高速增长的突破性改革方案 内容简介
本书剖析了中国经济增长速度下行的三方面内在原因, 解读了经济下行的各种风险, 分析了扭转风险所面对的优势, 并结合对中国经济增长的历史回顾, 对中国经济发展大势做出预判, 提出中国实体经济降成本政策及其配套改革方案, 阐述了实现经济增长的突破性和基础动能性体制改革、
跨越发展的陷阱:推进经济中高速增长的突破性改革方案 目录
1扭转经济增速下行的框架性概述/ 00
1?1实体经济的休养生息/ 00
1?1?1降低企业成本必须减税降费/ 00
1?1?2推进降低成本的配套性体制改革/ 00
1?2产权改革为重，启动J型增长/ 00
1?3三方面基础性的体制改革/ 00
1?4盘活存量要素和资源的体制改革/ 0
1?4?1盘活城乡间要素和资源存量的体制改革/ 0
1?4?2盘活国有经济要素和资源存量的体制改革/ 0
1?4?3盘活创新要素和资源存量的体制改革/ 0
1?5拓宽增长来源领域的开放性体制改革/ 0
1?5?1一些被管制领域的体制改革/ 0
1?5?2拓展新增长领域的体制改革/ 0
1?5?3放开社会事业领域的体制改革/ 0
1?6围绕经济中高速增长布局对外经济开放/ 0
1?6?1减少对外漏损与出口替代战略/ 0
1?6?2“一带一路”思路与战略的补充与完善/ 02经济增长速度下行的三方面内在原因/ 0
2?1人口收缩老化与经济格局变化/ 0
2?1?1“人口坑”对经济增长的20年影响定律/ 0
2?1?2增长乏力：不能市民化的城市化/ 0
2?1?3经济发展的格局发生了重大的转折/ 0
2?2企业高成本重创实体经济/ 0
2?2?1政府银行国企GDP分配比例的上升/ 0
2?2?2城乡居民和民营实体经济所分配的GDP/ 0
2?2?3居民消费能力趋弱/ 0
2?2?4挤压利润和高债务迫使投资增速下行/ 0
2?2?5经济增长下行的GDP挤压力流程/ 0
2?3国民经济流量的对外漏损/ 0
2?3?1服务贸易逆差对经济增长的影响/ 0
2?3?2企业家资金转移的增长推动力漏损/ 0
3经济增速下行风险及其扭转的优势/ 0
3?1未来中国发展面临的一些风险/ 0
3?1?1经济增速长期下行和低位徘徊/ 0
3?1?2改革提振速度慢于经济增速下行的恶化/ 0
3?1?3金融和经济危机可能由高杠杆率引发/ 0
3?1?4税费供养失衡与温水煮青蛙的可能性/ 0
3?1?5养老金缺口与民粹化导致经济社会“希腊化”/ 0
3?2中美印之间未来基于人口的竞争/ 0
3?2?1中美印人口结构对比/ 0
3?2?2中美印未来人口数量和经济走势预测/ 0
3?2?3中美印未来GDP总量和均值预测/ 0
3?3中国经济增速的优势与潜力/
3?3?1睿智勤劳储蓄创业的中华民族/
3?3?2经济增速有坚实的基础/
3?3?3大国规模经济优势/
4经济增长的历史回顾与大势预判/
4?1改革开放以来三次S型经济增长/
4?1?1改革开启经济起飞的首个S型增长阶段/
4?1?2改革开放深化推进第二个S型增长阶段/
4?1?3加入WTO促改革形成第三轮S型增长/
4?2温故和判断及把握关系/
4?2?1三次经济增速上行和下行的经验和启示/
4?2?2五种叠加压力可能造成经济增速长期下行的格局/
4?2?3诊断和治疗经济增速下行的大体思路/
5实体经济降成本政策及其配套改革/
5?1实施综合降低成本的经济政策/
5?1?1扩张性政策对人口原因性衰退调节的失效/
5?1?2经济高成本需要供给学派政策调降/
5?1?3供给经济政策需要凯恩斯工具相配合/
5?2降成本必须推进的体制改革/
5?2?1金融体制方面的改革/
5?2?2运输、能源和土地降成本的体制改革/
5?2?3降低企业成本与税费供养体制改革/
6经济增长：突破性和基础动能性体制改革/
6?1突破性改革启动新一轮J型增长/
6?2长远期经济增长基础动能性体制改革/
6?2?1创业就业体制改革/
6?2?2转变观念和推进生育体制改革/
7经济增长：改革体制与盘活存量/
7?1城乡间要素和资源流动的体制改革/
7?1?1加速市民化的体制改革/
7?1?2农村土地使用财产权制度的改革/
7?2国企改革与促进经济增长/
7?2?1低效率国有经济与改革的紧迫性/
7?2?2体制成本和集中风险及国有领域选择/
7?2?3切实推进国有企业的体制改革/
7?3盘活创新领域要素和资源的改革/
7?3?1科技创新要素和资源利用的问题/
7?3?2盘活科技创新存量的体制改革/
8开放和拓展经济增长领域的体制改革/
8?1服务业体制改革及领域的开放/
8?1?1服务业发展存在的体制问题/
8?1?2服务业体制的分类改革和开放/
8?2社会事业领域向民间放开/
8?2?1目前发展民间社会组织的问题/
8?2?2拓宽社会事业领域的几个重大关系/
8?2?3发展和壮大民间社会组织层次/
8?3拓展增长的空间资源环境等新领域/
8?3?1通用航空领域体制改革和开放/
8?3?2土地淡水造林生态领域的开放/
8?3?3将环境保护和治理转变为创造GDP的产业/
8?3?4推进PPP体制改革吸引民间投资/
9促进经济增长与对外经济开放/
9?1国内外形势变化与对外开放的转折/
9?1?1基于国内经济形势变化的对外开放调整/
9?1?2国际形势变化与中国开放战略的调整/
9?2中国经济开放的优势和面临的挑战/
9?2?1对外经济开放的优势不容置疑/
9?2?2中国“走出去”面临的风险和自身的不足/
9?2?3特朗普时代：中国的不确定性、风险和机遇/
9?3未来对外开放战略的思路和组合/
9?3?1构建对外经济开放宏微观调节机制/
9?3?2产业升级与出口替代/
9?3?3投资、资金和进出口流入与流出平衡/
9?3?4产能转移、平衡推进和国内关联/
9?3?5“走出去”的方式和体制的转型/
9?3?6特朗普时代：中国坚持经济全球化/
9?3?7国内能源自主与淡水平衡/
后记/
Chapter 1The Framework Overview of Reversing The Slowdown of Economic Growth/ 00
1?1Recuperation of the Real Economy/ 00
1?1?1Tax-cut and Fee Reduction Is Necessary for Lowering Enterprises? Cost/ 00
1?1?2The Supporting Ttructural Rreform of Promoting Cost Reduction/ 00
1?2Property Reform for Rebooting the J-curve Growth/ 00
1?3Basic Institutional Reform in Three Dimensions/ 00
1?4Structural Reforms for Vitalizing Stocks of Elements and Resources/ 0
1?4?1Structural Reforms for Vitalizing Stocks between Urban and Rural Regions/ 0
1?4?2Structural Reforms for Vitalizing Stocks of State-owned Economic Elements and Resources/ 0
1?4?3Structural Reforms for Vitalizing Stocks of Innovational Elements and Resources/ 0
1?5Field Opening Institutional Reforms for Broadening the Sources of Growth/ 0
1?5?1Institutional Reforms for Opening up A Few Restrained Fields/ 0
1?5?2Institutional Reforms for Broadening New Ares for Growth/ 0
1?5?3Institutional Reforms for Deregulation in Fields of Social Undertaking/ 0
1?6Layout of Opening Strategy surrounding Medium High-Speed Growth/ 0
1?6?1Strategy for Reducing Leakage and Export Substitution/ 0
1?6?2Thoughts, Complements and Perfections about “the Belt and Road Initiatives”/ 0
Contents
Chapter 2Three Underlying Reasons of the Slowing Down Economic Growth Rate/ 0
2?1Population Aging and Changes of Economic Pattern/ 0
2?1?1Theorem of 20-year Delay Effect of Population Pit over Economic Growth / 0
2?1?2Sluggish Growth: Urbanization Excluding Citizenization/ 0
2?1?3Major Transition in Layout of Economic Development/ 0
2?2High Costs on Enterprises Hit the Real Economy/ 0
2?2?1Increasing Share of GDP by Government, Banks and State-owned Enterprises/ 0
2?2?2Share of GDP Goes to Urban & Rural Citizens and Private Real Economy/ 0
2?2?3Weakening Household Consumption Capacity/ 0
2?2?4Shrinking Profit and High Debt that Causing Investment Slowdown/ 0
2?2?5GDP?s Crowding out Process of Economic Downturn/ 0
2?3Outward Leakage of National Economic Flow/ 0
2?3?1Service Trade Deficit Impacting Economic Growth/ 0
2?3?2Growing Capital Outward Transfer by Entrepreneurs Causing Economic Impetus Leakage/ 0
Chapter 3Risks of Economic Slowdown and the Advantages for Reversion/ 0
3?1Risks for China's Development in Future/ 0
3?1?1Long-term Economic Downturn and Fluctuation at Low Level/ 0
3?1?2Inspiration from Reform Slower than Economic Deterioration/ 0
3?1?3Financial and Economic Crises Caused by High Leverage/ 0
3?1?4Imbalance Support of Taxes & Fees and Possibilities of “Boiling Frog” Effect/ 0
3?1?5Pension Deficit and Populist May Lead to Situation Similar as “Greece?s Disease”/ 0
3?2Competitions Samong China, the United States and India Based on Population in Future/ 0
3?2?1Population Structure Comparison among China, America and India/ 0
3?2?2Population Predictions and Economic Trends of China, America and India/ 0
3?2?3Total GDP and Average Amount Prediction of China, America and India/ 0
3?3Advantages and Potential of China's Economic Growth/ 0
3?3?1Wise, Hardworking Chinese Nation with Savings and Entrepreneurship/ 0
3?3?2Solid Foundation of Economic Growth/
3?3?3Advantage of Scale Economy for A Great Power/
Chapter 4Review of Economic Growth and Prediction on Its Trends/
4?1Three Periods of S?curve Economic Growth since the Reform and Opening?up in China/
4?1?1The First Stage of S?curve Growth Initiated by Reform/
4?1?2Deepening Reform and Opening?up Which Advanced the Second S?curve Growth/
4?1?3Entry into WTO Promoteed Both Reform and the Third Stage of S-curve Growth/
4?2Reviews, Appraises and Relationship Analyses/
4?2?1Experience and Enlightenment of Three Cycles of Economic Upward and Downward/
4?2?2Superposition of Five Trends Which May Cause Long-term Economic Downturn/
4?2?3General Ideas of Diagnoses and Treatment for Economic Downturn/
Chapter 5Cost Reduction Policies and Supporting Reforms for Real Economy/
5?1To Implement Comprehensive Economic Policies for Cost Reduction/
5?1?1Ineffective Expansive Policies on Causal Decline of Population/
5?1?2High Cost Needs to Be Lowered from Supply-side/
5?1?3Supply-side Policies Embracing Keynesian Policies/
5?2Several Indispensable Structural Reforms for Promoting Cost Reduction/
5?2?1Reforms on Financial System/
5?2?2Structural Reforms on Lowering Costs in Transportation, Energy and Land/
5?2?3Structural Reforms on Lowering Costs for Enterprises and Taxes & Fees/ Chapter 6Economic Growth: Structural Reforms as Breakthroughs and Basic Momentums/
6?1Initiating New Round of “J” Shaped Growth by Achieving Breakthroughs in Reform/
6?2Establishing Basic Momentums for Long-term Growth/
6?2?1Structural Reform on Entrepreneurship and Employment System/
6?2?2Idea Changing and Advancing Structural Reform on Birth Control/
Chapter 7Economic Growth: Structural Reforms and Liquidizing Remnant Assets/
7?1Structural Reforms for Mobility of Factors and Resources Between Urban and Rural Areas/
7?1?1Speed-up Structural Reforms on Citizenizaition/
7?1?2Reforms on Land Property of Usage in Rural Areas/
7?2Reforming State-owned Enterprises and Promoting Economic Growth/
7?2?1Low Efficiency of State-owned Enterprises and Urgency for Reforms/
7?2?2Institutional Costs, Risks of Concentration and Choices of State-owned Domains/
7?2?3Firmly Promote Structural Reforms on State-owned Enterprises/
7?3Reforms for Liquidizing Factors and Resources in Innovative Domains/
7?3?1Problems of Liquidizing Technology Innovation Stock and Resources/
7?3?2Structural Reforms on Liquidizing Technology Innovation Stock/
Chapter 8Reforms for Opening up and Expanding the Fields of Growth/
8?1Reforms and Opening of Service Industry/
8?1?1Institutional Problems about Service Industry Development/
8?1?2Reforms on Service Industry System and Its Opening/
8?2Opening Social Undertaking Toward Private Capital/
8?2?1Problems of Social Associations? Development at the Moment/
8?2?2Broadening the Major Relations of Social Undertaking/
8?2?3Developing and Expanding Hierarchies of Non-Official Social Undertaking/
8?3Expanding New Fields: Space, Resources and Environment/
8?3?1Structural Reform and Opening of General Aviation/
8?3?2Opening the Fields of Environment Such as Fresh Water and Afforestation/
8?3?3Turn Environment Protection into Industries Producing GDP/
8?3?4To Attract Private Investment by Advancing Structural Reforms of PPP /
Chapter 9Promoting Economic Growth and Opening?up/
9?1Changes in the Domestic and International Situation and Transition of China?s Opening?up/
9?1?1Adjustment of Opening-up Based on Domestic Economic Situations/
9?1?2International Situation and Adjustment of China?s Opening Strategy/
9?2Advantages and Challenges for China?s Economic Opening/
9?2?1Unquestionable Advantages of Opening-up/
9?2?2Risks and Shortcomings of China?s “Going Abroad”/
9?2?3Trump?s Age: Uncertainties, Risks and Opportunities/
9?3Thoughts and Combinations of Opening-up Strategy in Future/
9?3?1Constructing Macro and Micro Regulatory Mechanism of Opening-up/
9?3?2Industrial Upgrading and Export Substitution/
9?3?3Investment, Capital, Balancing the Inflows & Outflows and Stabilizing Economic Growth/
9?3?4Industrial Capacity Shifting, Balanced Progress and Domestic Interrelations/
9?3?5Patterns of “Going Abroad” and Institutional Transition/
9?3?6Trump?s Age:China?s Insisting on Economic Globalization/
9?3?7Domestic Energy Independence and Balanced Fresh Water/
Postscript/
跨越发展的陷阱:推进经济中高速增长的突破性改革方案 作者简介
周天勇，经济学博士，教授，中共中央党校国际战略研究所副所长，中共中央党校校委研究室副主任，北京科技大学博士生导师。 社会兼职有：中国城市发展研究会副理事长兼城市研究所所长，国家行政学院、北京科技大学、东北财政大学、中国社会科学院研究生院等教授，国家发改委价格咨询专家。研究领域为社会主义经济理论、宏观经济、经济发展和增长、劳动经济、中小企业、金融风险、城市化、国企改革、农业经济等。在上海三联出版社、经济科学出版社和中共中央党校出版社出版有《劳动与经济增长》、《效率与供给经济学》、《金融风险与资本社会化》、《中国经济命运与前景的深层次思考》、《新发展经济学》、《中国政治体制改革》、《国有企业改革攻坚》、《现代国有资产管理体系模式》、《走出决策的经济误区》、《走出发展的体制障碍》、《中国：经济运行与结构转换》和研究生用《高级发展经济学》等专著和教材。近年来就国家整体负债、公平与效率、政府各部门收费、财政体制、官民供养比、水电开发、中国增长的危机等方面发表的文章，引起了各方面的高度关注。
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