中国贸易收支的形成机理及其主要影响因素研究 本书特色

本书提出了一个综合的多渠道分析框架探讨中国贸易收支波动的形成机理，识别和指出影响中国贸易收支的关键影响因素。本研究为客观评估中国贸易收支余额未来的可能走势提供了理论依据，同时为如何缓解我国的贸易失衡事实提供政策启示。从一个多维视角出发，构建了一个综合的多渠道分析框架探讨中国贸易收支的形成机理，从供给渠道、需求渠道和相对价格渠道，对影响中国贸易收支的主要经济因素进行测度。

中国贸易收支的形成机理及其主要影响因素研究 内容简介

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中国贸易收支的形成机理及其主要影响因素研究 目录

table of contentabtract itable of contents ivchapter 1 introduction 11.1 introduction .......... 11.2 motivations for this study 31.3 research questions and objectives 41.4 methodology....................................................................................................41.5 significance of the research 51.6 organisation of the thesis 6chapter 2 china’s trade performances and trade reforms 82.1 introduction.....................................................................................................82.2 china’s trade balance position 82.3 china’s foreign trade 92.4 reform of china’s trade regime 182.5 structural changes and external dependence 232.6 summary........................................................................................................27chapter 3 review of the literature 293.1 introduction...................................................................................................293.2 theoretical basis for determinants of trade balance 313.2.1 productivity and trade balance 323.2.2 income and trade balance 343.2.3 exchange rate, relative price effects and the balance of trade 353.2.4 monetary view of trade balance 383.3 empirical research 443.3.1 country-specific studies 443.3.2 cross-country studies 483.4 existing studies on the determinants of china’s trade balance 553.4.1 supply-side explanations 553.4.2 relative price effect: the exchange rate 563.4.3 demand-side considerations 583.5 summary........................................................................................................59chapter 4 research methodology 614.1 research framework 614.2 econometric modelling 644.2.1 the standard model of trade balance 644.2.2 an extension of the standard model 664.2.3 variable construction and data acquisition 684.3 estimation strategies 694.4 summary........................................................................................................76chapter 5 determinants of china’s trade balance—a multifaceted perspective 775.1 economic factors 775.1.1 a supply-side explanation 775.1.2 relative price effects 845.1.3 demand-side considerations: consumption constraints 865.2 socio-cultural factors 915.2.1 social ideology, social structure and labour supply 925.2.2 social networks and fdi inflows 935.2.3 demographic structure, social welfare system and saving behaviour ....................................................................................955.2.4 “shanzhai” products crowd out imports 975.3 institutional factors 985.3.1 segmented labour markets 985.3.2 strong incentives of local officials to attract inward fdi 985.3.3 weak labour trade unions 995.4 conclusion.....................................................................................................99chapter 6 effects of economic determinants on china’s trade balance—an aggregate analysis 1016.1 model specification and methodological procedures 1016.2 variable construction and data 1046.3 empirical results ...........................................................................................1056.4 discussion and conclusion 110chapter 7 effects of economic determinants on china’s trade balance—a disaggregate analysis 1127.1 decomposing china’s trade balance 1127.1.1 the problem..................................................................................1147.1.2 data and adjustment methods 1147.1.3 adjusted trade balance 1187.2 model specification 1217.3 results.........................................................................................................1227.4 discussion and conclusion 127chapter 8 conclusions 1298.1 findings and conclusions 1298.2 significance and contributions 1348.3 implications.................................................................................................1368.4 limitations and future research 138bibliography 140

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